In a gun store in Manassas, Virginia, there are weapons on display. As the coronavirus pandemic spread across the nation, sales of firearms and ammunition in the US have skyrocketed. YASIN OZTURK / ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES

Americans were instructed to hunker down in their homes when the first pandemic-related lockdowns began to spread across the nation in March 2020. They engaged in the largest gun buying binge in the nation's history during that month.

According to a data analysis from the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the trade association for the firearms industry, the number of estimated gun sales increased dramatically by 80%, surpassing 2.3 million in a single month for the first time. Gun sales brushed against that monthly peak several times over the next year.

The actual number of gun sales, which are not monitored by any organization, is unknown. The closest proxy is provided by the automated background checks that must be completed in order to purchase a firearm or apply for a concealed handgun permit; however, researchers and organisations like the NSSF have made adjustments to these checks in an effort to differentiate between firearm sales and licence applications or to take into account the fact that a customer can purchase multiple firearms with a single check.

Despite the pandemic's worst effects having passed more than two years ago, COVID still seems to have had a lasting impact on gun sales.

With monthly sales hovering at just over half of the peak from last year, there is no doubt that gun sales have decreased. Two of the biggest publicly traded gun manufacturers in the nation, Sturm, Ruger & Co. and Smith & Wesson, both reported declining sales and weakening demand in their most recent investor updates.

But according to NSSF spokesperson Mark Oliva, Americans are still on track for their third-highest gun-buying year ever.

The new floor will typically be higher than the ceiling was before the peak when we descend from those peaks, according to Oliva. "No industry will remain at its peak for an endless number of years. However, if you look at the big picture, you'll see that American gun sales and ownership are still very strong.

It is difficult to distinguish between the role the pandemic played in driving up gun sales and other, less obvious factors that supported sales over the ensuing months.

According to the experts consulted by HuffPost, the initial pandemic spike in March 2020 was largely caused by worries that a crime wave would overwhelm police. Since the pandemic began, semi-automatic handguns—which are frequently used for personal defence and infrequently for hunting—have accounted for a sizable majority of sales, according to the NSSF.

However, sales also appeared to consistently set new records in the wake of unrelated but independent events. The 2020 summer of protests after George Floyd was killed by a Minneapolis police officer heightened crime fear in some communities and stoked it in others, both of which likely contributed to an increase in firearm purchases.

In the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden defeated Republican Donald Trump, who had the support of the National Rifle Association, by advocating strongly for the reinstatement of the federal Assault Weapons Ban. New rounds of gun sales are typically sparked by the possibility of federal gun control, as people rush to acquire any weapons they believe may eventually be prohibited from being purchased.

The pandemic may have an impact on those 2021 figures, but Kelly Drane, research director for the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, is unsure. To truly understand where gun sales are headed, "I think we need a few more months away from the pandemic and away from the election."

Whatever the reasons, the past two years have upended the traditionally male, white, and conservative demographics of gun ownership.

According to retailer surveys done by the NSSF, 8.4 million Americans purchased their first firearm in 2020, with another 5.4 million new purchasers the previous year. Retailers saw significant increases in the number of people of colour, particularly among first-time buyers. Nearly 50% of first-time gun buyers were women.

Owner of Central Texas Gun Works in Austin, Mike Cargill, notices these trends in both his clientele and the students who enrol in his classes to obtain a concealed handgun licence.

Even now, most of the students in my class are liberal, according to Cargill. "Since 2020, we've noticed a significant increase in that. There are an increasing number of Black couples purchasing two guns—one for each partner—to protect themselves. That is something I have never seen before.

Advocates for gun reform are concerned by both the rising sales and the rise in first-time gun ownership. Gun ownership and gun deaths generally follow a similar pattern: Deaths typically rise in tandem with sales.

In a 2020 study tracked 26.3 million gun purchases over a 12-year span in California and published in The New England Journal of Medicine, male gun owners were three times more likely to die by suicide than those who did not own guns. Seven times as many women who owned guns died by suicide.

According to Matthew Miller, a professor at Northeastern University who specialises in the study of gun violence and suicide prevention, research shows that there are also higher risks for violence in homes with guns, particularly homicides committed by men against women.

Whether they knew it or not, Miller said, "every single one of those people who became new gun owners have significantly increased the chance that they'll die a violent death, along with everyone else who lives with them." "Everyone who purchases a gun does so at their own risk."

With the epidemic gun rush, the link between gun ownership and gun deaths became abundantly clear. 2020 saw an increase in gun deaths of almost 14%, reaching a new high of 45,222. The increase was driven by a 34% increase in homicides, even though the rate of homicides was still below its previous peak in the early 1990s.

According to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there was an additional 8% increase in deaths last year, totaling 48,832. As the leading cause of death for minors in the US in 2020, firearms surpassed automobile accidents. The nonpartisan Gun Violence Archive reports that between 2019 and 2021, there were 48% more mass shooting incidents.

Sales have remained consistent so far this year and have occasionally deviated from historical trends. Over the past 20 years, incidents that raise the prospect of significant gun control, such as mass shootings that spark discussion about the availability of semi-automatic "assault" rifles and elections that support reform-hungry Democrats, have typically coincided with an increase in gun sales.

However, the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, in May that claimed the lives of 19 students and two teachers did not cause an increase in anticipated sales. Neither did the ongoing wave of state gun laws passed in response to the mass shootings in Uvalde and Buffalo, New York, nor the discussion and adoption of the first significant gun reform legislation in a generation in June. So far, there hasn't been a rise in gun sales in conjunction with the midterm elections.

Even though sales haven't followed the usual trends of surging after specific events, they have nevertheless remained high.