The big reveal: Xi set to introduce China's next standing committee

On Sunday, Xi Jinping, who is in line to win a third five-year term as China's president, will preside over the Communist Party's twice-decade congress' most dramatic event: the announcement of the members of its illustrious Politburo Standing Committee.

By removing presidential term limits in 2018, Xi broke with tradition and began to rule for longer than ten years. It is even more difficult to predict who will join him on the standing committee because of his breaking of norms as China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.

A severe economic slowdown, discontent with his zero-COVID policy, and China's growing estrangement from the West—exacerbated by his support for Vladimir Putin—seem to have had little impact on the 69-year-old leader's hold on power.

The new leadership will be revealed when Xi, who is widely anticipated to be re-elected as China's top position as party general secretary, is followed by the other members of the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) in descending order of rank into a room of journalists at Beijing's Great Hall of the People.

The lineup, which will reveal who is in and out as well as who will succeed Premier Li Keqiang when he retires in March, will provide party observers with fertile ground for speculation about how much Xi has solidified his hold on power by appointing loyalists.

The composition of the standing committee and the identity of the premier, according to some analysts and diplomats, are less significant now than they were in the past because Xi has abandoned the practice of collective leadership.

The new PSC lineup, according to Ben Hillman, director of the Australian Centre on China in the World at Australian National University, "will show us whether Xi cares only about personal loyalty or whether he values some diversity of opinion at the top."

"There is a chance that the new PSC will be made up solely of Xi supporters, which would represent a consolidation of Xi's authority but present significant risks for China. The amount of information available for decision-making will be constrained by a group of "yes" men at the top."

IN OR OUT?

Due to age norms, at least two of the seven members of the current Standing Committee are anticipated to retire. Premier Li, 67, may be one of the people stepping down, according to reports published this week in the Wall Street Journal and South China Morning Post.

Analysts believe that Wang Yang, 67, and Hu Chunhua, 59, the former and current vice premiers, respectively, are both qualified candidates for the position of next premier based on historical norms for a position charged with managing the economy, but they do not have close ties to Xi.

According to the Wall Street Journal, which cited unnamed sources close to party leaders, Shanghai party boss Li Qiang, who has had a longstanding relationship with Xi, is likely to join the PSC and is thought to be a serious contender to become premier.

After Shanghai's punishing and unpopular two-month COVID-10 lockdown this year, for which Li received a lot of criticism from locals, Li's promotion to premier would be a clear indication of the value of loyalty to Xi.

Ding Xuexiang, 60, Xi's chief secretary and the head of the Central Committee's potent General Office, which oversees the administrative matters of the top leadership, is another loyalist who party observers believe is a candidate for promotion.